Donald Trump’s Chances of Beating Kamala Harris in Wisconsin: Recent Polls

Vice President Kamala Harris is beating former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to the poll tracker FiveThirtyEight.
As the Republican presidential candidate prepares to visit Wisconsin on Saturday, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average showed that his Democratic opponent was 2.9 points ahead in the battleground state, receiving 47.5 percent of the vote to Trump’s 44.6 percent—Harris’ biggest lead in any of the swing states.
Since Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, after he ended his reelection campaign on July 21, polls have shown her leading Trump by as much as 9 points in Wisconsin.
When Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, polls showed Trump leading him by up to 6 points in the state. The RealClearPolitics poll tracker showed that on the day Biden dropped out of the race, Trump was 3.3 points ahead in Wisconsin.
However, Harris’ lead in the Badger State may be unraveling. Some recent polls have shown the candidates tied in Wisconsin, while others show Trump leading.
A poll conducted by Patriot Polling between September 1 and 3 showed that Harris and Trump were tied in Wisconsin, with 48 percent each. A poll conducted by Z to A research between August 23 and 26 also showed the candidates tied among likely voters in the state.
Polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group and Emerson College between August 25 and 30 showed Trump 1 point ahead. Both polls showed his lead within the surveys’ margin of error.
While pollster Nate Silver’s model also forecast a tie in the state in November, his polling average put the vice president 2.8 points ahead, with the Democrats having gained 0.3 points in the past week and 1.5 points in the past month.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model showed the Democrats securing a victory in Wisconsin with a margin of 2.7 percent. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ polling average put Harris 1.4 points ahead.
Recent polls by CNN and SSRS, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, and The Telegraph have also shown Harris leading Trump by between 4 and 6 points among likely voters in the state.
Amid the close race in Wisconsin, both candidates are targeting the battleground state. Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Mosinee on Saturday, where he is expected to discuss the effect of inflation on the state.
“Inflation in Wisconsin has placed a devastating financial burden on hardworking Wisconsinites, as the rising cost of living under Kamala Harris continues to erode paychecks and savings,” Trump’s campaign team wrote in an email.
“The impact of inflation is felt across all aspects of daily life in Wisconsin. Wisconsinites have experienced significant price hikes in everything from family outings, like trips to the Wisconsin State Fair, to basic necessities such as rent, utilities, and groceries. Gas prices have also soared, making commuting and travel more expensive,” it continued.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.
Polls, including a recent CNN/SSRS survey, showed that the economy is the most important issue to voters in Wisconsin, according to 34 percent of those polled.
The rally would be Trump’s fourth campaign stop in Wisconsin this year, following rallies in Green Bay, Waukesha and Racine.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, stopped in Wisconsin earlier this week, speaking at Laborfest in Milwaukee.
In 2020, Biden turned Wisconsin blue with a slim 0.7-point margin, mirroring Trump’s narrow win in the state in 2016.
Polls at the time put Biden more than 8 points ahead in Wisconsin, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker showed. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics put Clinton ahead by 6.5 points in Wisconsin in 2016.
While polls underestimated Trump’s levels of support in both 2016 and 2020, experts believe that the polls will not be as inaccurate this year because they have gotten better at capturing likely Trump supporters, who were undercounted in the past, meaning Harris’ lead in the polls could be an accurate reflection of voters across the country.
Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling, previously told Newsweek, “Many pollsters today are using past vote [history] to correct for the Trump undercount.”